Title: Superhot Geothermal: Hype or Holy Grail for Clean Energy?

The race for clean energy solutions is heating up – quite literally, in the case of Mazama Energy's Newberry Volcano project in Oregon. The promise: to tap into "superhot rock" geothermal energy and transform it from a niche player to a major force. The question: is this a genuine breakthrough or just another overhyped tech demo?

The Allure of Superhot

The basic premise is sound. Geothermal energy, currently contributing less than 1% of global electricity, has immense theoretical potential. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that tapping into superhot rock could theoretically generate 150 times more electricity than the world uses. That’s a big number. Mazama's CEO, Sriram Vasantharajan, uses a Superman analogy: the water going down is Clark Kent, but it emerges as Superman. It’s catchy, but does it hold water?

The advantage of "supercritical" water (water heated above 705 degrees Fahrenheit under immense pressure) is its efficiency. A superhot well can produce five to ten times more energy than a typical one operating around 400 degrees. This translates to fewer wells needed, potentially slashing costs. The Clean Air Task Force even suggests that superhot rock geothermal could eventually rival the cost of natural gas or solar.

Here’s where my skepticism kicks in. "Eventually" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

The Devilish Details

Drilling into rock that's hotter than most ovens presents significant engineering challenges. Forget off-the-shelf gear; standard drills simply "get fried," as Vasantharajan bluntly puts it. Mazama cooled their rigs using liquid carbon dioxide to reach 629-degree rock. (A clever solution, but one wonders about the carbon footprint of that process.)

Other attempts at superhot geothermal have been less successful. Experiments in Iceland and Hawaii were abandoned after hitting magma. Wells in Japan and Italy reached even higher temperatures (over 900 degrees) but succumbed to equipment failures and casing problems. Mazama claims its well is stable, but the long-term viability remains an open question.

And then there's the earthquake risk. Pumping water into rock fractures, as required by enhanced geothermal systems, can trigger seismic activity. A Swiss experiment was shut down after causing a magnitude 3.4 quake in 2006. The Newberry site has recorded five tremors in the past six months, the largest reaching magnitude 2.5. Scientists claim the risk can be managed, but "managed" doesn't mean "eliminated."

Oregon's Green Push

Meanwhile, Oregon is aggressively pursuing its clean energy transition. Governor Tina Kotek recently issued an executive order aimed at accelerating wind, solar, and energy storage projects. The order sets an ambitious energy storage goal of 8 gigawatts by 2045 and seeks to streamline permitting and grid connections. She wants a 50% reduction in the carbon intensity of Oregon fuels by 2040. The current rule requires a 10% reduction in average carbon intensity from 2015 levels by 2025, followed by a 20% reduction by 2030 and 37% by 2035. Most fuel producers mix in cleaner fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel or renewable diesel into traditional gasoline and diesel or buy credits from others who have gone beyond the state requirement. More details on Kotek's climate order can be found in Latest Kotek climate order aims to speed up Oregon’s clean energy transition.

This context is crucial. Mazama's project isn't happening in a vacuum. It's part of a broader effort to decarbonize Oregon's energy sector. Kotek is pushing for public-private partnerships and supporting emerging technologies like enhanced geothermal. The political will is there, but will the technology deliver?

Mazama plans to generate 15 megawatts of electricity next year, eventually ramping up to 200 megawatts. The Newberry site could theoretically generate up to five gigawatts, about two-thirds of Oregon’s average electric output. That’s a tantalizing prospect, but the path to achieving it is fraught with technical and geological challenges. One of America’s most dangerous volcanoes will soon power homes, potentially providing a significant source of clean energy.

The Geothermal Gamble: High Risk, Uncertain Reward

Superhot geothermal energy holds immense promise, but it's far from a sure thing. The engineering hurdles are significant, the earthquake risk is real, and the long-term economic viability remains unproven. While Oregon's commitment to clean energy is commendable, pinning hopes on unproven technology is a risky bet.